Stateline, Nevada 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

709
FXUS65 KREV 261902
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
1202 PM PDT Sat Jul 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Thunderstorms will pose a risk of heavy rain and flooding, small
  hail, strong outflows, and frequent lightning today.

* Isolated showers and thunderstorms continue through next week with
  a potential uptick in storms Wednesday and Thursday.

* Typical summertime conditions of warm weather and breezy
  afternoons to end the month.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Weak low pressure aloft centered near Lake Tahoe maintains a
favorable overlap of moisture and instability for additional
thunderstorms today. Coverage today will be similar to yesterday
with best chances of 30-60% between the Sierra/NE California and the
US-95 corridor, and north of Mono Lake. This includes Tahoe
communities, the Greater Reno-Carson-Minden area, Fallon/Fernley,
and frequented lakes such as Lake Tahoe, Pyramid, Frenchman, Topaz
Lakes, and Lahontan and Bridgeport Reservoirs.

Thunderstorm activity likely peaks between 1 PM and 7 PM PDT, but a
few shower/storms may hang around until 10 PM in some spots.
Unseasonable deep-layer moisture yielding PWATs of 0.7-0.8" and
slow/moderate storm motions will promote heavy rainfall and a 5-15%
chance of flash flooding with today`s storm -- especially in and
below burn scars and urban locales. Pea to marble-sized hail, strong
outflows gusts of 60+ mph, and frequent lightning will also
accompany mature thunderstorms. Propagating outflows may produce
areas of blowing dust in the W NV Basin and Range this afternoon,
especially near desert sinks and playas.

A slow drying trend begins Sunday and continues through Tuesday,
which will decrease thunderstorm potential but not completely remove
them from the forecast. There will still be 15-25% chance of showers
and isolated storms each afternoon for our typical areas from NE CA
into the Surprise Valley/N Washoe County, and in the Alpine-Mono-
Mineral County vicinity. Elsewhere, lesser odds of 10-15% will exist
early next week. Another weak low pressure passage may provide a
boost in thunderstorm chances/coverage Wednesday and Thursday. On
the bright side, this weather pattern has been keeping heatwaves at
bay and will continue to do so through next week. It`ll be a warm
week with daytime highs near 80F and 90F for Sierra and western
Nevada communities, respectively.

-Salas

&&

.AVIATION...

Thunderstorms will be the main concern today with the greatest
likelihood (30-60% chance) at KTRK-KTVL and KRNO-KCXP-KMEV between
20Z and 02Z. Expect strong outflow gusts of 40+ kts, small hail, and
frequent lightning, with heavy downpours reducing CIGS/VIS to MVFR
conditions at times. There`s better potential for storms farther
east today, which may result in blowing dust impacts to KNFL-KLOL-
KHTH among the aforementioned t-storm impacts.

Additional storms are expected Sunday afternoon, although chances
and coverage decreases.

-Salas

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Extensive thunderstorm activity will support abundant lightning this
afternoon and evening, although heavy rainfall will mitigate the
potential for dry lightning. Still, new lightning starts will be
possible outside of rain cores. A brief drying trend will reduce
thunderstorm chances and coverage Sunday into early next week, but
also means dry lightning becomes more likely with isolated storms.

-Salas

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$